Grayling’s CEE Outlook 2026

Grayling’s Public Affairs teams explore the political, regulatory and geopolitical developments that will define the business environment in the year ahead. What binds these markets together in 2026 is not uniformity, but simultaneity – a shared moment of recalibration unfolding across the region.

Hungary’s parliamentary election in April stands out as a potential inflection point. Its outcome may shape not only Hungary’s domestic trajectory, but also wider debates within the European Union, from enlargement and sanctions policy to fiscal governance and the balance between integration and national sovereignty.

Elsewhere, political and economic dynamics remain equally consequential. Poland is managing institutional tensions between government and president while maintaining defence spending close to 5% of GDP. Romania faces coalition fragility and renewed fiscal pressure following sweeping tax measures. Slovakia is entering a polarised pre-election cycle alongside continued consolidation efforts, while Slovenia heads into tightly contested elections amid major pension and labour cost reforms. Bulgaria is grappling with renewed instability following euro adoption and rising inflation, and Croatia is balancing OECD accession ambitions with slowing growth and domestic political polarisation. In Serbia, political uncertainty and preparations for EXPO 2027 are shaping the investment climate, while Ukraine’s trajectory remains closely tied to developments on the battlefield and the pace of EU-aligned reforms.

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